To La Russa or Not. Who to hit in the #9 slot.

A bottom of the order conversation on a cold winter day.

Who or what type of hitter do you place in the #9 slot, in a DH game, league, or tournament?  It has been my experience that most leagues and tournaments I play in use the DH.  This is not the place for a DH or not argument, but who or what type of hitter to place in the #9 slot.

I like the La Russa method at times.  I was able to see Tony manage many games on TV as we now live in Illinois and I tend to watch the Cardinals.  I also read the book book Three Nights in August that gives an inside look at his managing. He likes a "second lead-off hitter" in the 9 slot and your worst hitter or slowest player in the 8 (Hence the pitcher for Tony in the NL).

Tournament Play. 

I'm warming up the 1970 Minnesota Twins for the Wisconsin APBA Tournament and I have been playing around with batting orders for this interesting crew.

The batting line-up for the Wisconsin Tournament:

Tovar  .300/.442/.356  RF-2  F
Oliva  .325/.514/.364  CF-2  F
Carew  .366/.524/.407  2B -  F
Killebrew  .271/.546/.411  3B-3  S
Alyea  .291/.531/.366  DH  S
Reese  .261/.371/.332  1B-5
Holt  .266/.342/.300  LF-2  F
Cardenas  .247/.374/.300  SS-9
Mitterwald  .222/.388/.291  C-8  S

Hide Mitterwald in the 9 slot or hit him 8 and get a better runner at the #9?  In a short tourney I like moving Mitterwald to 9 and using a pinch-runner when necessary.  In a tourney I get less than 50 at bats for the 8 and 9 hitter, so we are losing few if any plate appearances with this line-up.  In a tourney using these Twins I have 2 fast pinch runners to put on base if need be, and adequate catchers (although lesser defenders) to put behind the dish.

So, for a short tournament, I like stashing the worst hitter in the 9 spot (conventional wisdom) and relying on fancy pinch-runners and pinch hitting moves in critical situations.

I have two F runners for these situations, but have very limited pinch-hitters.  In fact I have one pinch-hitter, and he is a bit of surprise.

The 1970 Twins: Luis Tiant!  Check out his card:

11, 33, 66 - 6s
15-11
22, 25, 44, 55 - 7s
45-14
42, 64 - 9s
31, 35, 51, 8s

As a starter, he is a C no letters, but a solid hitter.
Another lesson for newer players, take a look at EVERY card when looking for pinch-hitters.

Thus, in the tight situations than managers love, and can turn a tournament; I'll use this strategy.  In tight games, late, I like Tiant as a pinch hitter for Reese through Mitterwald, if he gets on, pinch run Hill.  Also, if Mitterwald gets on, with less than 2 outs, I like pinch running for him late in tight games, especially if I see him standing on 2nd base with 0 outs.

League play. 

In a league, the long season creates more at bats for the 8 hitter over the 9 hitter.  In a 162 game season, Cardenas will get approximately 20 more plate appearances in the 8th slot as opposed to the 9th where I would hit him otherwise.   Those 20 plate appearances can be important in terms of moving him around the bases when the order turns over and not overusing my bench to run and making complicated rules for other managers to follow.

The batting line-up for league play:

Tovar  .300/.442/.356  RF-2  F
Oliva  .325/.514/.364  CF-2  F
Carew  .366/.524/.407  2B -  F
Killebrew  .271/.546/.411  3B-3  S
Alyea  .291/.531/.366  DH  S
Reese  .261/.371/.332  1B-5
Holt  .266/.342/.300  LF-2  F
Mitterwald  .222/.388/.291  C-8  S
Cardenas  .247/.374/.300  SS-9

Plate Appearances for the American League in 2009 (compliments Dead Cat's Bounce) :

AL:

1st - 762
2nd - 743
3rd - 725
4th - 709
5th - 693
6th - 675
7th - 657
8th - 638
9th - 618

Mitterwald should get 20 more plate appearances over Cardenas and stretched over that length of time and I can take the statistical hit dropping from a .247 hitter to a .222 hitter higher in the line-up.

With guys like Oliva and Crew hitting 2 and 3, I like average speed over slow standing at first or second base and not having to "coach" the runner with those bats in the line-up.  They tend to hit a lot of doubles over home runs and I'd rather turn an average runner loose than coach a slow runner and come up short in a league.  I also dislike a slow runner holding up that speed at the top.  Mitterwald can take away Tovar, Oliva, and Carew's speed with his S at the bottom if the line-up rolls over.  This problem, I can manage on a at-bat by at-bat basis in a tournament.

Tournaments games are all critical games, thus with Mitterwald on first or second base with less than two outs, I pinch run Herm Hill and turn the rabbit loose to those dangerous 2 and 3 hitters,
The #4 slot is another animal; Killer tends to empty the bases slow runners or not.

Non-DH games, leagues, tourney games etc.  My adjustment to the above is to allow a F hitter to hit ninth. I like speed on the bases so in a non-DH situation I look at my pitchers speed rating.  8th if normal or slow, 9th if Fast.

FYI- the 1964 Jim Kaat went yard with two on for me in the Chicago Fall tourney.

B* Relievers and Their Overlooked Value.

This strategy is probably not for the manager using a modern team with a stacked pen.  Today's teams are loaded with high-value arms out of the pen, but even these teams can get caught with no bullets left and only a B* or a C* if you play the rightly/lefty match-up upgrade. If that is the case, or if you play older teams with typical pre-2012 bullpens, this entry may be of value for you.

When I am pulling a team and sort through the cards for the first time, I often place them in piles: position players (then by position), relief pitchers, and starters.  For years when I flashed through the relievers I often only took notice of a B* reliever as a middle or last resort if the rest of the pack was thin.  However, after league play in my World baseball Organization and playing in these tournaments with very experienced players, I see a new value in the B* reliever.  Therefore, this blog entry in really aimed at new or intermediate players that have not found the special value in a B* arm out of the pen.  

Not to give away too much information, but I have been playing the 2000 Twins squad as a possible selection for an upcoming tournament.  I often just grab a year or a short set and play the squad I am considering against a few teams in a mini-tournament to get a good feel for the team.  This week, I ran the 2000 Twins out against the 2014 playoff teams: Cardinals, Giants, Royals, and Orioles.  The Twins played a best of 7 against each team in the 2014 playoff set.

The Y2K Twins have a B*x by the name of Eddie Guardado-AKA "Steady Eddie" in Twins Territory.

Here is the key to a B* reliever for the most value.  He kills the 8 on the hitters card. The 8 is only a hit against C* and D* talent.  The strategy is to bring in Eddie (B*) if you see a card coming up heavy with 8s.

The C* arm is also sneaky as it kills a 9, however, most position players just have two 9's, located on 31 and 51.

Remember, second column 8s and 9s do you no good as the result is taken for a D* pitcher.

Take a close look at the situation, especially if the bases are empty, but who needs a high-leverage reliever when they are empty?  The 8 does not get you only the out, it typically advances the runner or allows a Sac Fly with a runner on third, but it is much better than a hit.

The 2000 Twins are a thin, but interesting squad. David Ortiz (yes, Big Papi) is still a Twin, Ron Coomer (the color guy for the Cubs radio), and Torii Hunter is still a Twin for the first time.

The Pen consists of Eddie (B*x),  LeTroy Hawkins (B*y), Miller (B*y), and Wells (C*xzz).  Loads of B*s but for argument sake, lets agree that Eddie is your only B* or in my case, your only B* available with any time left on the arm after 5 games with the O's.

In my simulated game, the Twins were up 3-1 with C starter Brad Radke still tossing in the 9th.  The 2014 Orioles have "Crush" Davis, Jones, and Wieters due up.

Radke (Cz) is on the bump.  He gets Davis to fly out to center.  Jones gets the dreaded 15 turned Red 11 and is standing on 2nd base.  Wieters is entering the box with 1 down, down 2 runs, with a runner on 2nd, top of 9th, he is batting for the visiting team.  Time for the pen.  I am not going to pinch-hit for Wieters as he is a .308 hitter with power and defensively a 9 behind the dish.  I bring this up to avoid the counter-argument that I should pinch-hit and avoid the problem with his 8s.  I would not pinch-hit for him as a manager in this situation.

The APBA match-up:

Time for your B*.  Wieters has four 8s.  They occur on 15, 25, 31, and 51.  An unusually high number of 8s and four more chances to get him out than Radke would have with the 8s. Wieters saw limited time in 2014, but I played the opening day lineups for the 2014 teams.  If I have a better arm in the pen, or this is a one-and-done game, it doesn't really matter, but if I have innings restrictions and/or more games to play, Eddie is an excellent option.  The Twins travel to Kansas City when the Baltimore series is decided and play 2 there with one day rest on a heavily used pen.

The 8 via the B* can get you the pitcher-to-first-base put out with the runner advancing to 3rd but now with 2 outs so the Sac Fly is taken away.  The runner does advance, but you get the out and take away the sacrifice fly. The high number of 8s on Wieters card is worth noticing in this situation.

Result if the 8 comes up: Runner on 3rd, 2 outs.

As a manager, I will trade outs for advancing the runner in this situation, playing at home with a lead.

Footnote: Wieters grounded out 6-3, no advance on the runners.  I stuck with Eddie, and he struck out Hardy. Twins win.

Challenging the Bashers

Favorite Player Teams!

Good friend, APBA guru, Michigan Tournament organizer, and overall great guy Pastor Rich Zawadzki put together a team of his all-time greats called the Brewster Bashers to run a project.  I have been following the project over Facebook and, as I was running my own Christmas all-time favorites tournament, it occurred to me: Why not have the two play?  So here is the open challenge to Pastor Rich.  I understand, on paper, I am over-matched.  But, as I am a Twins fan, hope springs eternal.

To make the games just a bit more even; I am going to bench my usual second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka in favor of Dustin Pedroia. With that change, here is my line-up, rotation, pen, and bench.

2011 Nishioka        -1.9 WAR
2008 Pedroia           6.9 WAR
A +8.8 WAR swing.

The Linemen are managed by Tom Kelly

Cal wears the "C" on his jersey.

Wilkin County Linemen 

C-    ’09 Joe Mauer                                                    .365                     28-HR                C9

1B- ’88 Kent Hrbek                                                 .312                     31-HR                1B4       (S)

2B- '08 Dustin Pedroia                                           .326                     54-2B                 2B8      (F)

3B- ’91 Chris Sabo                                                   .301                     26-HR                3B5       (F)

SS-  ’91 Cal Ripken                                                   .323                     34-HR                SS10

LF- ’90 Bo Jackson                                                   .272                     28-HR                LF3       (F)

CF- ’88 Kirby Puckett                                             .356                     24-HR                CF3       (F)

RF- ’04 Ichiro Suzuki                                              .372                     36-SB                 RF3       (F)

DH- ’06 Justin Morneau                                         .321                     39-HR                1B4

Look at that outfield!  Left to right, Jackson, Puckett, Ichiro...ouch.  Amazing defense, as long as we can keep the ball in the yard. 

Batting Order (Jersey #)

1.  Ichiro Suzuki  (51)

2. Kirby Puckett  (34)

3. Joe Mauer  (7)

4. Justin Morneau  (33)

5. Cal Ripken  (8)

6. Kent Hrbek  (14)

7. Dustin Pedroia  (15)

8. Bo Jackson (16)

9. Chris Sabo  (17)

A preview of slots 3 and 4:

Bring out the Boom-Sticks..

And one last piece of advice: don't run on Mauer.

Roto- 

1.  ’84 Bert Blyleven                  Byz                      2.87 

2.  ’78 Dave Goltz                        Az                        2.49 

3.  ’12 R. A. Dickey                     Axz                      2.73 

4.  ’00 Rick Ankiel                      Bxy                      3.50 

(5.)  ’92 Jim Abbott                   By                         2.77

Filthy:

Long Relief/Spot Starters 

1.  ’02 Tim Wakefield               B/A*x                 2.81 

2.  ’95 Hideo Nomo                   Axy                      2.54 

Pen- 

’90  Rob Dibble                            A*xy 

’91 Rick Aguilera                        A*x 

’14 Pat Neshek                            A*xyz 

’89 Mitch Williams                    B* xw 

Shut the door:

Bench- 

’94 Deion Sanders                     .283      38-SB                 CF2       (F)

’11 Jeff Francoeur                      .285      47-2B                 RF3

’12 Yadi Molina                           .315      22-HR                C9          (S)

’00 Darrin Erstad                       .355      25-HR                LF3       (F)

’90 Billy Ripken                          .291      28-2B                 2B8       

Speed to burn off the bench.

Taxi Squad- 

’77 Carlton Fisk                          .315      26-HR                C8

’08 Kevin Youkilis                     .312      25-HR                3B

’03 Kevin Millar                          .276      25-HR                OF

’75 Mickey Rivers                      .284      70-SB                 OF         (F)

’87 Harold Reynolds                 .275      60-SB                 INF       (F)

’88 Dan Gladden                         .269      28-SB                 OF-2     (F)

My opponent: The Brewster Bashers

The Rotation:
1913 Walter Jounson  A&B yz

1905 Christy Mathewson  A&B yz

1966 Sandy Koufax A&C xyz

1908 Ed Walsh A&B yz

1995 Greg Maddux A&C yzz

The BIG Train.

The Lineup

1911 Ty Cobb CF                                            .420/.621

1924 Rogers Hornsby 2B                             .424/.696

1921 Babe Ruth  RF                                       .378/.846

1927 Lou Gehrig DH                                      .373/.765

1953 Ted Williams LF                                   .407/.901

1931 Josh Gibson C                                        Stats Unavailable but impressive

1932 Jimmy Foxx 1B                                      .364/.749

1930 Willie Wells SS                                      .420/.685

1925 Judy Johnson                                         .389/.579

The Beast.

Before you write-off the Linemen, let me introduce you to our secret weapon, Mr. Five-Tool Clutch:

Look for updates on this project.  We hope to play face-to-face in Michigan. 

Hall of Fame Set* Review

My lovely wife gave me the new Hall of Fame set from APBA for Christmas and I had a chance to look them over today.

First and foremost, the name needs a bit of a tweak or asterisk, as not every player carded is in the HOF.  For example, Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are carded.

Some of the Internet chatter was not giving much credit to the company for having 14 envelopes.  It seems easy for me to figure out, 8 position players (8), DH (9), Starting Pitching (10 ,11 and 12), Relief pitching (13), and Managers (14). Yes, managers as "players" like Bobby Cox and Branch Rickey have cards.  It takes three envelopes to hold all the starting pitching, so that is how I organized my set.  I don't think there is a right and wrong way to organize them, others have done it by birth month.

354 total cards and 14 envelopes imprinted "Hall of Fame". $40.00 plus shipping. By not sticking to the actual Hall of Fame list APBA opened themselves up to criticism, but that is nothing new and I applaud them for making choices.  For one, I am rather upset and question the exclusion of Kent Hrbek and Chris Sabo in the set, but I am sure the list will be long if we start down that road.

The cards are printed on standard stock with the usual opposite side.  No stats are included, but the master symbols are, as well as the years the player was in The Show, and when (if at all) he was elected to the HOF.  No currently rostered players are in the set, thus no Ichiro or Pujols, etc.

Each outfielder is rated for a specific position, and I like that.  For example: Puckett is a center fielder, Kaline is a right fielder, and Yastrzemski is a left fielder.

Other observations are the pitching cards are normalized down quite a bit; the best cards I see in the starting pitching group are:

Nolan Ryan Akyw
Bob Feller Akyw
Pedro Martinez Akz
Greg Maddux Axz

Some other starting pitchng cards of note:

Gibson Bxy
Koufax Bk
Clemens Bxy
Big Train Johnson Bkz
Big Unit Johnson Bk


However, the pitching grades make the set highly playable as inter-squad games and that is a huge plus.  If you run these guys out against other sets they will not fare as well as they are normalized.  It appears to me, that this set is designed to play against each other.

The bullpen is on the thin side, just 12 arms.

Rivera is the ace with a A&C* k
and Quisenberry is the least effective as a C*zz

There are so many ways to mix these teams and play them, by team they had the most innings for, by birth month, by era, by region, alphabetically, random pull by position, or one could run a draft with other managers.  I like the idea of a mini-tournament with a draft using this set.

The hitting seems to be either a high-range average or career, I am sure if you look around you can find a stats-person that has the analysis.

Here are some card examples:

Standard Infielders card:

Standard Outfielders card:

Player in the set but not in the HOF:

Shoeless Joe's card:

Managers Card:

Overall a great addition to the APBA selection from the company.  I am a sucker for odd sets so my view should be read through that lens.

Chicago Tourney!

Greetings!
I am finally able to get back to blogging with the semester at a close.
The Chicago Fall Tourney was a huge success, thanks to Rob Spatz and all the fantastic managers. Rob found a great venue, was well organized, and it ran very smoothly, in the tradition of all the Chicago tourneys.

My 1964 Twins were nothing short of AMAZING.  They ran the table: 9-0 in divisional play.  I went from feeling like they were doing well, to not believing it, and ended with a series of superstitions to not break the streak.  9-0: congratulations to a strong hitting, above average pitching, and poor fielding team.

They will be an interesting group to use in the future. A big "thank you" to The APBA Blog run by Thomas Nelshoppen  for these tourney pics.   Check out his blog, it is excellent and link above takes you to it.

The Twins hitting was off the charts showing a massive run differential (north of 70).  Here are some rough stats presented in the batting order over 9 games.  I will do a separate entry for game 10.

The team hit .351 and smashed 23 Home Runs over 9 games.

Jimmy Hall:  .424
Tony Oliva:  .390
Bobby Allison:  .294 with 5 Home Runs
Harmon Killebrew:  .432
Don Mincher:  .316
Rich Rollins:  .333
Early Battey:  .361
Bernie Allen:  .352
Zoilo Versalles:  .257

We ran the table for divisional play, and then ran into the 2000 Astros managed by Pig Daniels.  Don't sweat the "Pig" name, it is the name he prefers. The Twins were shut out by Jose Lima.....Yes, Jose Lima.  And, that sent the Twins back to Minneapolis, the front office into turmoil, and sent the Astros on a run to the championship game. It was good to see the Daniels clan join the APBA action.

Next stop is a winter tourney in Wisconsin-January 21st to be specific in Wauwatosa.   I will be taking the powerful 1970 Minnesota Twins squad up north for that one.  After Wisconsin is the Prairieland 2.0-teams yet to be announced.  

The Wisconsin tournament is a 1970s tourney and the Prairieland is teams from 1970-2000 with one dead-ball player.  Look for more blogging about those two. 

I can't bring a Twins dead-ball player but I can bring a Washington Senators dead-baller to join a Twins squad.  The scouts say this guy has potential:

However, there seems to be some disagreement at headquarters.  I like the kid's numbers, but there are other dead-ball players.  And, I am never sure to go with a once-every-four-games ABxz starter or a studly every-day position player.  Time to crunch the numbers.

November Chicago Tournament quick Pre-View

First, thanks to Rob Spatz for taking over this tournament and keeping it alive.
Rob did a call for ideas and from the great suggestions, he selected a Sub-500 theme.  Your APBA team must have a sub .500 winning record.  As a Twins fan I had many fine teams to pick from.  I debated an 80s or 90s team, but I am managing the 1988 Twins in the TCABT in Minneapolis in November, so I selected the great 1964 Minnesota Twins!

The 1964 Twins went 79-83.

These Twins can HIT!

Tony Oliva:  .323/.359/.557 with 32 HRs

Harmon Killebrew:  .270/.377/.548  49HRs

Bobby Allison  .287/.404/.553  32 HRs

Jimmy Hall  .282/.338/.480  25HRs

Rich Rollins  .270/.334/.406

Early Battey  .272/.348/.407

And, they can pitch a bit too:  

Jim Kaat  B-yz
Camilo Pascual  B-x
Mudcat Grant C-z
Dick Stigman D-xz

Pen:
Al Worthington  A*xz
Jim Perry  B*xz
John Klippstein B*yz

Now let's get back to earth for a moment, they must have a weakness!  Fielding.  I will have a fielding 3 team no matter what tricks I pull or who is throwing.  

Mincher is killing me at 1B, a fielding 2.
Rollins at 3B is a 3.
Allen at 2B is a 7
The above combined with a fast but three 2s in the OF gets me to a solid 34 without my pitcher. 
Clank, clank, clank, iron hands in the field. 

You can still enter the tournament, just local the Facebook page and sign up, or you can leave a comment here and I can lead you to Rob.